Earnings trade checklist

Post-earnings moves depend on guidance, orders, margin, and expected move, not just beat/miss.

EarningsIVCOHRAXTI

Logic Chain

A Reviewable Logic Chain

Each card stays open and maps one transmission node without collapsible controls or pseudo-precise scores.

expected move

First calculate what the market already expects, then ask whether the release can clear that hurdle.

GUIDE

raise or not

For AMKR, check smartphone, auto, and AI packaging segments separately.

ORDER

backlog

For COHR/AXTI theme names, order wording and gross margin matter more than EPS beat alone.

REACTION

gap vs IV

First calculate what the market already expects, then ask whether the release can clear that hurdle.

Research note

Trade question

Earnings day is not a direction guess around beat/miss. It is a test of whether information clears the pre-quoted volatility hurdle.

If the outcome lands inside expected move, upside can be crowded out quickly even after a strong headline.

Execution sequence

Start from ATM straddle as the baseline volatility expectation.

Then validate whether guidance is raised or clarified and whether margin quality improves.

Finally confirm backlog conversion quality and delivery cadence behind the earnings numbers.

Conclusion

For high-volatility names, post-earnings trend is determined by the expected-move gate, guidance quality, and order conversion.

Tickets like AMKR, COHR, and AXTI usually carry elevated overnight risk; without a margin guard, narrative strength alone overestimates follow-through.

Next checks

Keep validating: expected-move breach, guidance quality, margin bridge, and backlog-to-revenue conversion.

Source Trail

AMKR / AXTI / COHR / AMD

Earnings releases, announcements, filings, estimate tables, and reviewable sources.

Core signal: ATM straddle, guidance raise, gross margin, backlog conversion
Current read: High-volatility names need expected-move math before overnight exposure.
Next question: Has the earnings-day implied move already priced the good news?

Core conclusions

First calculate what the market already expects, then ask whether the release can clear that hurdle.
For AMKR, check smartphone, auto, and AI packaging segments separately.
For COHR/AXTI theme names, order wording and gross margin matter more than EPS beat alone.

Next review

ATM straddle expected move

next-quarter guidance

gross margin bridge

backlog conversion